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Home / news / Capturing Africa’s high returns.

Capturing Africa’s high returns.

Since 2000, at least half of the world’s fastest-growing economies have been in Africa. And by 2030, Africa will be home to 1.7 billion people, whose combined consumer and business spending will total $6.7 trillion.

Seven years ago, the Harvard Business Reviewpointed out that Africa is also home to many of the world’s biggest opportunities. And yet, despite its tremendous business potential, Africa has not risen to the top of Western business leaders’ agendas.

In fact, between 2014 and 2016, U.S. exports to Africa fell by almost half, from $38 billion to $22 billion. And while the United Kingdom’s investments on the continent more than doubled between 2005 and 2014, reaching £42.5 billion ($57.6 billion), only 2.5 percent of its total exports are to Africa.

Western countries are quickly losing ground to China, which increased its exports to Africa more than sevenfold—to $103 billion—from 2005 to 2015. If Western businesses hope to keep up, they will need to tap into the African countries and sectors with the highest potential for growth.

By 2030, more than half of Africa’s population will reside in seven countries: Nigeria, Ethiopia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Tanzania, Kenya, and South Africa. But, more important, 43 percent of Africans will belong to the middle or upper classes, up from 39.6 percent in 2013, implying considerably higher demand for goods and services. By 2030, household consumption is expected to reach $2.5 trillion, up from $1.1 trillion in 2015.

Nearly half of that $2.5 trillion will be spent in three countries: Nigeria (20 percent), Egypt (17 percent), and South Africa (11 percent). But there will also be lucrative opportunities in Algeria, Angola, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Morocco, Sudan, and Tunisia. Any one of these countries would be a good bet for companies seeking to enter new markets.

By 2030, the sectors generating the most value in Africa will be food and beverages ($740 billion), education and transportation ($397 billion), and housing ($390 billion). But there will also be strong growth in consumer goods ($370 billion), hospitality and recreation ($260 billion), health care ($175 billion), financial services ($85 billion), and telecommunications ($65 billion).

Of course, much of this growth will depend on the African Union properly implementing its new Continental Free Trade Area, which would create a single market for goods and services, offering corporations many points of entry. Moreover, the CFTA will increase the need for connectivity, so there will be new opportunities to invest in infrastructure and sectors ranging from transportation and energy to information and communications technology (ICT) and water supplies. For its part, the African Development Bank can help investors find promising projects through its Program for Infrastructure Development in Africa.

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